Wednesday, April 15, 2009

what can be insured

undoubtedly,insurance is highly important way of spreading risks.why,then, can we not insure ourselves against all the risks of life ? the answer lies in the indisputable fact that certain definite mathematical conditions are necessary before sufficiently exact actuarial probabilities can be determined .
first,we must have a large number of events.only then will a pooling of risks and a" cancellation" and " averaging of extremes" be possible. the bank at Monte Carlo knows there is safety in numbers. the lucky streak of an Arabian prince one night will be canceled by his next night is losings or by the losings of a fake Balkan countess. once in a blue moon someone may " break the bank " ; but in few more lunar cycles the the " house " will more than break even. large numbers alone are not enough. No prudent fire-insurance company would confine itself to the island of Manhattan even though there are thousands of buildings there. the uncertain events must be relatively independent . Each throw of the dice, each chance of loss by fire, should stand relatively by itself.

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