Wednesday, July 29, 2009

the need for countercyclical monetary policy

TO understand the basis of Friedman‘s reasoning,Suppose for the sake of argument that the Federal Reserve‘s main goal is to stabilize the price level. By definition, then, monetary policy actions would stabilize prices if the level of prices is less variable in the presence of policy actions than it would have been if there had been no policy actions at all. that is, successful Federal Reserve stabilization policies must make the price level less variable than it would have been if the Fed had undertaken no policies in the first place.
clearly, then, the very worst policy that the Federal Reserve could follow would be to undertake actions either that increase the price level when it already is rising or that reduce the price level during a time when it already is declining. If the Fed did this, it would be conducting procyclical monetary policy, meaning that its actions would reinforce existing tendencies for prices to rise or fall over time. Because a procyclical policy would add to variability of the price level, this would be a wrongheaded policy for the Fed to pursue.
Instead, successful Federal Reserve stabilization policies require that the Fed conduct countercyclical monetary policy actions when they are needed. Countercyclical monetary policy actions when they are needed.Countercyclical monetary policy actions automatically offset movements in real output that otherwise would have occurred in the absence of Fed policy making. Consequently, countercyclical policy making by the Fed requires the Fed to contract the Quantity of money when prices are rising and to increase the quantity of money when prices are falling.

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